Questionable Predictions

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1996

Publication Title

IEEE Potentials

Volume

15

Issue

2

First page number:

12

Last page number:

16

Abstract

Examples of inaccurate or questionable predictions exist in the economic, political, social and scientific fields. Candidates for skepticism include: predictions of future values of stocks, governmental deficit reduction, future cost of health care, changes in demographics, environmental concerns such as global warming and the greenhouse effect, nuclear winter, depletion of the ozone layer, or backward extrapolations about the origins of the universe. Pre- dictions about the future states of dynamic physical systems fare somewhat better if the model is accurately known, and if the future inputs are known, at least in an accurate statistical sense.

Keywords

Computer simulation; Estimation theory; Mathematical models; Prediction theory--Mathematical models

Disciplines

Applied Mathematics | Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing | Other Engineering | Risk Analysis | Statistical Models | Theory and Algorithms

Language

English

Permissions

Use Find in Your Library, contact the author, or interlibrary loan to garner a copy of the item. Publisher policy does not allow archiving the final published version. If a post-print (author's peer-reviewed manuscript) is allowed and available, or publisher policy changes, the item will be deposited.

UNLV article access

Search your library

Share

COinS