Title

Questionable predictions

Document Type

Article

Abstract

Examples of inaccurate or questionable predictions exist in the economic, political, social and scientific fields. Candidates for skepticism include: predictions of future values of stocks, governmental deficit reduction, future cost of health care, changes in demographics, environmental concerns such as global warming and the greenhouse effect, nuclear winter, depletion of the ozone layer, or backward extrapolations about the origins of the universe. Pre- dictions about the future states of dynamic physical systems fare somewhat better if the model is accurately known, and if the future inputs are known, at least in an accurate statistical sense.

Disciplines

Applied Mathematics | Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing | Other Engineering | Risk Analysis | Statistical Models | Theory and Algorithms

Permissions

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