Title

Long lead time forecasting of U.S. streamflow using partial least squares regression

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

9-2007

Publication Title

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering

Publisher

American Society of Civil Engineers

Volume

12

Issue

5

First page number:

442

Last page number:

451

Abstract

Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were used as predictors in a long lead-time streamflow forecast model in which the partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique was used with over 600 unimpaired streamflow stations in the continental United States. Initially, PLSR calibration (or test) models were developed for each station, using the previous spring-summer Pacific (or Atlantic) Ocean SSTs as predictors. Regions were identified in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Colorado River Basin, Midwest, and Atlantic states in which Pacific Ocean SSTs resulted in skillful forecasts. Atlantic Ocean SSTs resulted in significant regions being identified in the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and Atlantic states. Next, streamflow stations were selected in the Columbia River Basin, Upper Colorado River Basin, and Mississippi River Basin and a PLSR cross-validation model (i.e., forecast) was developed. The results of the PLSR cross-validation model for each station varied with linear error in probability space scores of +9.5 to +51.0% where 10% is considered skillful forecasts using Pacific and Atlantic SSTs.

Keywords

Forecasting, Least squares method, Ocean water, Streamflow, Water temperature

Disciplines

Climate | Environmental Sciences | Fresh Water Studies

Language

English

Permissions

Use Find in Your Library, contact the author, or use interlibrary loan to garner a copy of the article. Publisher copyright policy allows author to archive post-print (author’s final manuscript). When post-print is available or publisher policy changes, the article will be deposited

Identifier

DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2007)12:5(442)