Panel Title

Session 2-2-D: Hold Your Horses? Research on Racing

Location

The Mirage Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada

Start Date

8-6-2016 10:30 AM

End Date

8-6-2016 12:00 PM

Abstract

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker market for two year old races.

Keywords

Pedigree; horse racing; performance; prediction; sports betting

Disciplines

Applied Statistics | Other Statistics and Probability | Risk Analysis | Statistical Models

Comments

Attachment: PDF containing 18 slides

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Jun 8th, 10:30 AM Jun 8th, 12:00 PM

Well I'll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value of Pedigree Information in Horse Racing

The Mirage Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker market for two year old races.