Estimation of optimal pavement performance models for highways

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date


Publication Title

The 10th International Conference on the Bearing Capacity of Roads, Railways and Airfields (BCRRA 2017)

First page number:



A mathematical program is proposed to determine an optimum number of pavement clusters, memberships of the pavement samples to clusters, and associated significant explanatory variables. Simulated annealing and all subsets regression was used to solve the mathematical program. Potential multicollinearity issues were examined and addressed. All possible combinations of the explanatory variables were explored to select the best model specification. Six-cluster models were determined to be the optimum solution for the da-taset used in this research. The resultant models were applied to the test data set to examine the prediction ac-curacy. Normalized root-mean-square error was calculated for each of the resultant models. The associated models were robust with small prediction errors.



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