Submission Type

Presentation

Submission Title

Order effects in the Australian and New Zealand horse racing betting markets

Session Title

Session 2-1-D: Horses, Sports, and Games

Location

Caesars Palace, Las Vegas, Nevada

Start Date

29-5-2019 9:00 AM

End Date

29-5-2019 10:25 AM

Disciplines

Behavioral Economics

Abstract

In both artificial laboratory settings and real-world environments judgments involving probability estimates can be affected by the order with which options are presented. Order effects have been investigated in a wide diversity of decision making domains. We investigate order effects in the Australian and New Zealand horse racing betting market. We find evidence of a primacy effect when ‘favored’ options are in the number one (first/top) position leading to biased probability judgments. The findings have important implications with respects to the long-lasting favorite long short bias.

Author Bio

Tim Baker is a PhD student at the University of Southampton. Tim's research is i the area of sports betting markets, which provide an ideal framework to explore the behavior of bettors and gain insights into how their decisions and actions manifest in aggregated market anomalies and biases.

Professor Johnnie Johnson is Professor of Decision and Risk Analysis within Southampton Business School at the University of Southampton.

Professor Ming-Chien Sung is Professor of Risk and Decision Sciences; Associate Director of Centre for Risk Research within Southampton Business School at the University of Southampton.

Dr Tiejun Ma is Associate Professor in Risk and Decision Analytics within Department of Decision Analytics and Risk, Southampton Business School at the University of Southampton.

Funding Sources

NA

Competing Interests

NA

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May 29th, 9:00 AM May 29th, 10:25 AM

Order effects in the Australian and New Zealand horse racing betting markets

Caesars Palace, Las Vegas, Nevada

In both artificial laboratory settings and real-world environments judgments involving probability estimates can be affected by the order with which options are presented. Order effects have been investigated in a wide diversity of decision making domains. We investigate order effects in the Australian and New Zealand horse racing betting market. We find evidence of a primacy effect when ‘favored’ options are in the number one (first/top) position leading to biased probability judgments. The findings have important implications with respects to the long-lasting favorite long short bias.