A Large-Scale Prospective Study of Big Wins and Their Relationship with Future Involvement and Risk Among Actual Online Sports Bettors

Session Title

Session 3-1-B: Behavioral Analysis

Timothy EdsonFollow

Presentation Type

Paper Presentation

Location

Park MGM, Las Vegas, NV

Start Date

25-5-2023 9:00 AM

End Date

25-5-2023 10:30 AM

Disciplines

Cognitive Science | Experimental Analysis of Behavior | Social and Behavioral Sciences

Abstract

Abstract:

Clinical evidence suggests that big wins early in a gambler's betting experience can lead to increased gambling involvement, and eventually problem gambling. Think of the gambler who wins $200 on a single slot spin, and then loses it all (and then some) trying to repeat the experience. Yet, objective assessments of the big win effect are limited in the scientific literature. To address this knowledge gap, using matched pair analysis and other robustness tests, we examined big wins’ ability to predict future gambling involvement and behavior using bet-level data from 36,328 sports gamblers who subscribed to a large, European online gambling operator in February, 2015. We defined “big win” in two ways: (1) a definition based on average incomes and (2) a definition based on average bet sizes. Our results showed that big wins in sports betting were associated with increased engagement, losses, and risk in the following weeks, with the impact declining over time. The exact timing of when a big win occurs after initially subscribing does not appear to have a major effect on subsequent behaviors. Sensitivity analyses suggest these findings were robust, and held for both definitions of big win.

Implications:

Understanding how the big win effect manifests in online sports betting is important, as this form of gambling has grown increasingly popular worldwide and continues to expand. Documenting its effect using actual sports betting records could assist operators as they consider various interventions for bettors who experience a big win.

Keywords

big win, matched pairs analysis, mahalanobis distance, online gambling, online sports betting

Author Bios

Timothy C. Edson, Ph.D. is a Research & Evaluation Scientist with the Cambridge Health Alliance Division on Addiction and Instructor in the Department of Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School. His main research interests include assessing the causes and consequences of irrational human decision making. He holds a Ph.D. in Criminal Justice and Criminology from the University of Massachusetts Lowell.

Eric R. Louderback, Ph.D. is a Research & Evaluation Scientist at the Division on Addiction at Cambridge Health Alliance, and an Instructor at Harvard Medical School. He has expertise in quantitative risk assessment models for online gambling, responsible gambling program evaluation, applied data science methodologies, and open science-informed research approaches. His research has been published in peer-reviewed journals including the Journal of Gambling Studies, International Gambling Studies, Annual Review of Criminology, and Addiction Research & Theory.

Debi A. LaPlante is an Associate Professor of Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School and Director of the Division on Addiction. Dr. LaPlante joined the Division on Addiction in 2001, after earning her PhD in Social Psychological from Harvard University. She became Director of the Division in 2019. Her research interests include understanding addiction in at-risk populations, studying how technology influences addiction experiences, and advancing open science research principles and practices.

Kahlil Philander is an Assistant Professor in the School of Hospitality Business Management. He also holds an appointment as an Honorary Lecturer in the School of Psychology at the University of Sydney. His research interests are in gambling economics. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, an MA in economics from the University of Toronto, and a BCom with Honors in finance from the University of British Columbia.

Matthew Tom, Ph.D. is an Associate in Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School and a Research Data Analyst at the Division on Addiction, Cambridge Health Alliance. Dr. Tom received his doctorate in statistics from Cornell University in 2003. Dr. Tom's special research interests include the diversity of gambling habits within different player pools, responsible gambling tools and tips, and the distinction between games of pure chance and games of skill and chance.

Funding Sources

Entain PLC

Competing Interests

None

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May 25th, 9:00 AM May 25th, 10:30 AM

A Large-Scale Prospective Study of Big Wins and Their Relationship with Future Involvement and Risk Among Actual Online Sports Bettors

Park MGM, Las Vegas, NV

Abstract:

Clinical evidence suggests that big wins early in a gambler's betting experience can lead to increased gambling involvement, and eventually problem gambling. Think of the gambler who wins $200 on a single slot spin, and then loses it all (and then some) trying to repeat the experience. Yet, objective assessments of the big win effect are limited in the scientific literature. To address this knowledge gap, using matched pair analysis and other robustness tests, we examined big wins’ ability to predict future gambling involvement and behavior using bet-level data from 36,328 sports gamblers who subscribed to a large, European online gambling operator in February, 2015. We defined “big win” in two ways: (1) a definition based on average incomes and (2) a definition based on average bet sizes. Our results showed that big wins in sports betting were associated with increased engagement, losses, and risk in the following weeks, with the impact declining over time. The exact timing of when a big win occurs after initially subscribing does not appear to have a major effect on subsequent behaviors. Sensitivity analyses suggest these findings were robust, and held for both definitions of big win.

Implications:

Understanding how the big win effect manifests in online sports betting is important, as this form of gambling has grown increasingly popular worldwide and continues to expand. Documenting its effect using actual sports betting records could assist operators as they consider various interventions for bettors who experience a big win.