Prediction of 5km Trail Race Performance from a Shorter Distance Trail Run
Journal of Biology of Exercise
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A common strategy for many runners is to predict race time from a shorter time. It is unknown whether these strategies apply to trail races. The purpose was to determine if a 1-mile time trial on the trail could predict performance on a 5km trail run. Twenty-six participants reported to the trailhead and completed a 1-mile and a 5km timed trail run one day apart in a counterbalanced order. Elevation at the trailhead was 1,641 m with a rise of 17 m throughout the marked 1-mile course, and 61 m on the 5km course. Data were analyzed using a Pearson product moment correlation coefficient with significance accepted at the p≤0.05 level. A significant correlation was observed between 1 mile time and 5km performance (r=0.952, p=0.0001, R2 = 0.907, SEE = 1.77). The equation to predict 5km time from the mile time trial was: trail 5km time (minutes as a decimal) = 3.996 x trail mile time (minutes as a decimal) – 3.6011. A 1 mile trail run time trial can be used to predict performance for a 5km trail race. Additionally, based on these data, 5km trail running velocity is approximately 12% less than during a 1-mile trail run bout.
Running prediction, Outdoor exercise, Environmental physical activity
Nevalta, J. W.,
Radzak, K. N.,
Tanner, E. A.,
Bodell, N. G.,
Manning, J. W.
Prediction of 5km Trail Race Performance from a Shorter Distance Trail Run.
Journal of Biology of Exercise, 14(1),