Title

On a Temporal Investigation of Hurricane Strength and Frequency

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

10-29-2018

Publication Title

Environmental Modeling and Assessment

First page number:

1

Last page number:

13

Abstract

Hurricanes originating in the West Atlantic often have devastating consequences on the cities in the US east coast, both monetary and otherwise, and hence pose a source of considerable concern to several authorities. The possibility of a connection between global warming in general and an increased frequency of these strong hurricanes is well researched, but is still actively debated. The present work tries to promote the use of a smoothing statistic termed empirical recurrence rates and to advocate the use of another, termed empirical recurrence rates ratio in a bid to better understand the rich history of these storms on one hand and to make appropriate inferences on the other, so that some light can be shed on the acceptability of conjectures held by renowned climate scientists. The methods introduced are intuitive and simple to implement and should find wide applications in diverse disciplines.

Keywords

Hurricanes; Tropical cyclones; Global warming; Empirical recurrence rates; Empirical recurrence rates ratio; Time series

Disciplines

Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment | Environmental Monitoring

Language

English

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