## UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations

1-1-1992

Thesis

#### Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

182

#### Abstract

"Comparison of computer models in forecasting hotel and motel guestroom supply" developed a methodology for estimating guestroom supply. Several traditional forecasting models, including PLAN, were compared. The computer models were applied to Las Vegas, Nevada, using tourism and hospitality statistics from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. The purpose of this study was to determine whether these models generate accurate forecasts; which is the most realistic model; and if these model(s) could be used to reduce guestroom overbuilding; First, statistics, from 1972 to 1990, were collected. Second, the primary data were analyzed to determine if any trends existed over the nineteen year period. Factors with no trend were deleted. Third, the forecasting models were applied to the remaining variables. Fourth, the model results were evaluated to identify those having optimal forecasting capabilities; The 'best estimate' guestroom supply projections for Las Vegas for 1991 to 2000 were generated by PLAN.(UNFORMATTED TABLE OR EQUATION FOLLOWS){dollar}{dollar}\vbox{\halign{\hfil#\hfil&&\quad\hfil#\hfil\cr &{dollar}\underline {\rm Year}{dollar}&{dollar}\underline{\rm Best\ Estimate'}{dollar}&{dollar}\underline{\rm Year}{dollar}&{dollar}\underline{\rm Best\ Estimate'}{dollar}\cr &1991&78,965&1996&92,156\cr &1992&81,603&1997&94,794\cr &1993&84,242&1998&97,432\cr &1994&86,880&1999&100,071\cr &1995&89,518&2000&102,752\cr }}{dollar}{dollar}(TABLE/EQUATION ENDS).

#### Keywords

Comparison; Computer; Forecasting; Guestroom; Hotel; Models; Motel; Nevada; Supply

#### Controlled Subject

Management; Statistics; Economics

pdf

2979.84 KB

English

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#### Identifier

https://doi.org/10.25669/scnn-juzk

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