Award Date


Degree Type


Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)


Hotel Administration

First Committee Member

Zheng Gu

Number of Pages



Since China decided to promote tourism in 1978, the rapidly increasing number of foreign visitors has continuously put pressure on China's tourism infrastructure and service facilities. To keep up with the demand, China's hotel industry has been expanding at a growth rate that is faster than that of foreign visitors. In 1990s, the overdevelopment became a problem confronting the China's hotel industry. However, the hotel supply has continuously been increasing beyond the demand. Severe over-capacity is likely to occur in China's hotel industry time series analysis and single-period inventory model, this dissertation estimates the optimal capacity for both China's and Shanghai's high-end hotel segment for future four years. The estimated optimal capacity is then compared with the expected room capacity to explore the possibility and magnitude of future over-capacity or under-capacity; Data required for this study are collected from Yearbook of China Tourism Statistics, China Hotel Industry Study, and other related publications from the National Tourism Administration of People's Republic of China and the Shanghai Municipal Tourism Administrative Commission; The estimated optimal capacity for future four years suggests that both Shanghai's and China's high-end hotel segments are experiencing over-capacity, and will continue for approximate one and half years. After the demand catches up with the supply, both China's and Shanghai's high-end hotel segment needs to expand at a slightly higher rate. In addition, the forecasted future demand of both China's and Shanghai's three-star rated hotels also shows an upward trend in future four years; The results of the study are expected to provide investors, hospitality practitioners, and local government with a useful tool for scientific capacity planning to avoid unnecessary future under- or overdevelopment. It is also expected that this study will address the gap in the literatures of destination capacity optimization.


Application; Capacity; China; China's Hotel Industry; Chinese Lodging; Chinese Tourism; China; Hotel Industry; Inventory Model; Lodging Capacity; Model; Optimization; Room Capacity; Shanghai's Hotel Industry; Tourism

Controlled Subject

Industrial management; Recreation

File Format


File Size

1679.36 KB

Degree Grantor

University of Nevada, Las Vegas




If you are the rightful copyright holder of this dissertation or thesis and wish to have the full text removed from Digital Scholarship@UNLV, please submit a request to and include clear identification of the work, preferably with URL.


IN COPYRIGHT. For more information about this rights statement, please visit