Master of Arts (MA)
Number of Pages
This study will forecast the subcounty population of Nye County, Nevada in convenient and useful boroughs for the purpose of assisting local planners in allocating essential services. We shall explore and revise a new technique by providing a means of quantifying the accuracy of population projections using the cohort-component method. This technique will place a formal measure of uncertainty around the projections by analyzing bias and random errors; a Mean Square Error (Master of Engineering (ME)) Confidence Interval (CI). The two sources of error will be extended to cover errors in cohort-component projections resulting from net migration, mortality, and fertility. In addition, the cohort-component method will include a basic industry adjustment for net migration. This new approach will extradite unforeseen, economic motivated migration. Net-migration will also be trended to the western states average to account for changing migratory behavior. Under a similar assumption, fertility will be linearly trended toward national levels to account for the changing demographic characteristic of the population.
Bounded; Cohort; Communities; Component; County; Development; Forecasts; Generated; Method; Mushrooming; Nevada; Population
Economics; Public administration; Demography
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
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Arnold, Douglas George, "Bounded population forecasts of Nye County communities generated by the cohort-component method: A mushrooming development" (1994). UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations. 373.