Panel Title

Session 3-4-F: Research on New Casino Demand

Location

The Mirage Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada

Start Date

9-6-2016 4:00 PM

End Date

9-6-2016 5:30 PM

Abstract

All developers of new casinos prepare, or have prepared for them, projections for the likely gaming-revenue performance of those casinos; in many cases; regulatory authorities in North America also require or commission independent third-party assessments of such performance. These projections are very frequently based on "gravity models," applying techniques pioneered by Reilly and Huff to analyze other retail activities in relation to the geographic distribution of competitors and potential customers. In this paper, I review roughly 80 examples of such applications from recent casino-licensing procedures in the U.S., and compare their results.

Keywords

casinos; gaming revenues; projections; analytical techniques; performance; geography

Disciplines

Economics | Finance | Gaming and Casino Operations Management | Geographic Information Sciences | Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration | Tourism and Travel

Comments

PDF contains 61 slides

 
Jun 9th, 4:00 PM Jun 9th, 5:30 PM

"Gravity Models" Applied to Projections for New Casinos: Techniques and Results

The Mirage Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada

All developers of new casinos prepare, or have prepared for them, projections for the likely gaming-revenue performance of those casinos; in many cases; regulatory authorities in North America also require or commission independent third-party assessments of such performance. These projections are very frequently based on "gravity models," applying techniques pioneered by Reilly and Huff to analyze other retail activities in relation to the geographic distribution of competitors and potential customers. In this paper, I review roughly 80 examples of such applications from recent casino-licensing procedures in the U.S., and compare their results.