Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Abstract

The study evaluated the relationship between two climate variability indicators – sea- surface temperature (SST) and 500-mbar geopotential height (HGT/Z500) – and the monsoonal precipitation pattern of Pakistan. Data from 30 precipitation gauges were obtained and were analyzed over a period of 35 years from 1980 to 2014. Singular-valued decomposition (SVD) technique was used to determine the association of previous year’s SST and HGT with the current year’s monsoonal precipitation. The results indicated that the association of SST and HGT with precipitation varied depending on the lead-times selected. Multiple regions of the North Indian Ocean were identified that showed significant association in affecting Pakistan’s precipitation. The long term trend and abrupt shift patterns of precipitation were also evaluated across the selected gauges to determine the generic change patterns. The findings of the study can be useful predictors of forecasting models for water management in Pakistan.

Disciplines

Civil and Environmental Engineering | Water Resource Management


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