Links between some north and central Peruvian Coast streamflows and El Nino Southern Oscillation

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Conference Proceeding

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Several studies have shown that there is a significant relationship between El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the streamflow of rivers of the Pacific Rim countries and even in countries that do not belong to the Pacific Rim. This relationship is very important because it can be used to predict streamflow that can be used to implement reservoir operation policies, as well as to avoid losses due to floods, etc. In a preliminary study, the discharge of six Peruvian rivers (Chancay, Moche, De la Leche, Chillon, Zaña and Jequetepeque) is analyzed and correlated with the different ENSO indicators. The ENSO indicators used are: the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the sea surface temperatures Niño 1,2, Niño 3 and Niño 4. The total annual discharge and the average discharges for three periods are correlated with four three months average of the ENSO indicators. The three periods of four months used are: Jan.-Feb.-Mar.-Apr. (JFMA); May-Jun.-Jul.-Aug. (MJJA); and Sep.-Oct.-Nov.-Dec. (SOND). For the ENSO indicators, the periods used are Dec.-Nov.-Oct. (OND), Sep.-Oct.-Nov. (SON), Aug.-Sep.-Oct. (ASO), and Jul.-Aug.-Sep. (JAS) of the previous year. The best correlations found are for the average discharge of the period May-Jun.-Jul.Aug. with the sea surface temperatures Niño 1,2 and Niño 3 for the Moche and Jequetepeque Rivers. This means that it is possible to predict the MJJA average discharge based on the average values of El Niño 1,2 and/or El Niño 3 as early as the period Jul.-Aug.-Sep of the previous year. This represents a lag period of seven months.


El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Peru; Seasonal streamflow


Climate | Environmental Sciences | Fresh Water Studies


Bulletin de l Institut Francais d Etudes Andines. 27(3), 829-838.: Spanish language
Presented at: Seminario Internacional Consecuencias Climaticas e Hidrologicas del Evento El Nino a Escala Regional y Local - Incidencia en America del Sur-, November 26-29, 1997, Quito, Ecuador


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