Dependence of the Human Leukemia Risk on the Dose and Dose Rate of Continuous Irradiation: Modeling Study

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Life Sciences in Space Research

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A biologically motivated dynamical model of the radiogenic leukemia risk assessment (Smirnova, 2015, 2017; Smirnova and Cucinotta, 2018) is applied to the study of the effects of dose rate N and dose D on the excess relative risk ERR for non-CLL leukemia among continuously irradiated humans. In the study, the dose rate N of continuous irradiation is varied from 3×10−6 to 0.576 Sv/day and the dose D is varied from zero to 2.2 Sv. In the considered range of doses D, the developed model reproduces the linear dependence of ERR on D for the low dose rates N. For higher N, the dependence of ERR on D remains linear for low doses Dand becomes nonlinear for higher D, that agrees with empirical observations. In turn, for the considered values of D, the developed model reproduces the practical independence of the ratio ERR/D on N at low N, the inverse dependence of the ratio ERR/D on N at higher N, and the direct dependence of the ratio ERR/D on N at more high N, that also conforms to empirical observations. Additionally, the modeling values of ERR obtained for the scenarios of continuous irradiation corresponding to those for the nuclear industry workers, Chernobyl cleanup workers, and patients treated with radiotherapy, practically, coincide with the respective empirical data. All these modeling findings, along with those obtained in our previous works, demonstrate the predictive power of the developed model and its capability of estimating, on quantitative level, the excess relative risk for non-CLL leukemia among humans exposed to continuous irradiation in wide ranges of doses and dose rates.


Radiogenic leukemia risk; Humans; Continuous irradiation; Dose; Dose rate; Dynamical modeling approach


Medicine and Health Sciences



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