Imagining the Future of Medicine; History of Medicine; United States


Medicine and Health Sciences


Many healthcare management decisions today, such as those about facility construction, will have impact even decades beyond the traditional 5 or 10 year planning horizon. In order to get some idea of the possibilities and challenges of today’s long range forecasts in healthcare, it is instructive to look at how well similar efforts fared a century ago. Looking in retrospect now, the task of prognostication then was impeded in part by a failure of vision due to prejudicial attitudes of the era.