Title

Impact of Seasonality and Rainfall on Tea Production in Sri Lanka

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

12-1-2019

Publication Title

Advances and Applications in Statistics

Volume

59

Issue

2

First page number:

103

Last page number:

123

Abstract

The most popular drink in the world is tea, and ideal conditions for tea cultivation are temperatures between 21 degrees C to 29 degrees C, rainfall of 150-250cm with no stagnation of water, and humus rich soil mixed with lime and iron. In this article, the effect of seasonality and amount of rainfall on tea production in Sri Lanka is investigated via the time series method of autoregressive integrated moving average modeling with predictors (ARMAX); the monthly data for this study is collected from eight tea estates in Sri Lanka, over the years 2009-2017. Our results indicate that, with one exception, rainfall does not significantly affect tea production, possibly due to each tea estate receiving rainfall that is sufficient for tea production. Our results also show that a total of six out of the eight tea estates exhibit increasing trend during the study period.

Keywords

Tea Estate; Seasonal; Time Series; ARMAX; Rainfall

Language

English

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