Submission Title
Well I'll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value of Pedigree Information in Horse Racing
Session Title
Session 2-2-D: Hold Your Horses? Research on Racing
Presentation Type
Event
Location
The Mirage Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada
Start Date
8-6-2016 10:30 AM
End Date
8-6-2016 12:00 PM
Disciplines
Applied Statistics | Other Statistics and Probability | Risk Analysis | Statistical Models
Abstract
Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker market for two year old races.
Keywords
Pedigree, horse racing, performance, prediction, sports betting
Included in
Applied Statistics Commons, Other Statistics and Probability Commons, Risk Analysis Commons, Statistical Models Commons
Well I'll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value of Pedigree Information in Horse Racing
The Mirage Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada
Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker market for two year old races.
Comments
Attachment: PDF containing 18 slides