Measuring Bets’ Riskiness Across Multiple Forms of Gambling

Session Title

Session 1-4-C: Lightning Talks

Presentation Type

Lightning Talk

Location

Park MGM, Las Vegas, NV

Start Date

23-5-2023 3:45 PM

End Date

23-5-2023 5:15 PM

Disciplines

Probability

Abstract

When researchers at the Division on Addiction analyzed player activity data from actual Daily Fantasy Sports contests from a large gambling operator, they proposed a risk score that measured the "riskiness" of a contest based on payout structure top-heaviness. In this lightning talk, we will discuss the formula for this risk score, some of its mathematical properties, and its broader application to many forms of gambling. To close, we will present some special cases, closed-form solutions based on algebraic derivations, and lower and upper bounds for this risk score. Our discussion will cover a wide range of games, including sports betting, poker tournaments, and keno.

Keywords

We have proposed a novel measure for a gambling endeavor's riskiness based on stake size and variance, two concepts found in all gambling games. Future research might show that such a universal descriptor can be useful when analyzing gambling behavior across multiple games in both online and land-based domains.

Author Bios

Matthew Tom, Ph.D. is an Associate in Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School and a Research Data Analyst at the Division on Addiction, Cambridge Health Alliance. Dr. Tom received his doctorate in statistics from Cornell University in 2003. Dr. Tom's special research interests include the diversity of gambling habits within different player pools, responsible gambling tools and tips, and the distinction between games of pure chance and games of skill and chance.

Funding Sources

DraftKings, Inc., a sports betting, gambling, and daily fantasy sports company, provided primary funding for the studies associated with this presentation. The Division on Addiction receives additional funding from a variety of federal, state, local, and private sources, as described on https://www.divisiononaddiction.org/funding-statement/.

Competing Interests

All Division on Addiction funders are listed on https://www.divisiononaddiction.org/funding-statement/. The author declares no conflicts of interest.

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May 23rd, 3:45 PM May 23rd, 5:15 PM

Measuring Bets’ Riskiness Across Multiple Forms of Gambling

Park MGM, Las Vegas, NV

When researchers at the Division on Addiction analyzed player activity data from actual Daily Fantasy Sports contests from a large gambling operator, they proposed a risk score that measured the "riskiness" of a contest based on payout structure top-heaviness. In this lightning talk, we will discuss the formula for this risk score, some of its mathematical properties, and its broader application to many forms of gambling. To close, we will present some special cases, closed-form solutions based on algebraic derivations, and lower and upper bounds for this risk score. Our discussion will cover a wide range of games, including sports betting, poker tournaments, and keno.