Session Title

Session 1-1-E: Sports Betting

Presentation Type

Paper Presentation

Location

Park MGM, Las Vegas, NV

Start Date

23-5-2023 10:15 AM

End Date

23-5-2023 11:45 AM

Disciplines

Applied Behavior Analysis | Applied Statistics

Abstract

In this work, we discuss the structure of a number of professional wagering organisations, and how they attempt to deal with the “Ender’s Game” effect – when knowledge of the true nature of the ‘war being wagered’ may have affected the process and choice of betting. We analyse the responses from professional wagering and betting organisations, whom operate predominately in Horseracing and sportsbetting, and they identify the importance of separation of decisions around choices to make and the stakes and size of wagers that are linked to the decisions. The proposed model, practically carried out by one company, is an “Enders Game” like environment, with the decision making around betting is semi-detached from the stake/wagering process. The use of a unit basis is shown, and some vignettes revealed that tell startling tales of changes of trades and wagers in light of the stake size and potential cost of losses. This work concludes with operational structures to help avoid the outcomes of psychological effects of changing decisions due to the possibility of losing, and how a feedback mechanism, in an ideal world, helps all stakeholders in the process of betting and trading.

Keywords

Betting, Wagering, Staking, Sport, Horse racing, sportsbetting

Author Bios

Anthony has worked with both elite sporting clubs and academia for over 20 years. He is an Associate Professor in Sport Performance Analysis, holding the highest qualification in this specialised field. He is an internationally recognised expert in sports analytics having worked in Sports and Wagering, AFL, Elite Netball (NZ and Australia), Badminton and has been involved in two Olympic and three Commonwealth Games campaigns.

"The Baron" is Tristan Barnett, a mathematician with a PhD in tennis statistics who has made a career out of predicting sporting outcomes. This includes setting prices prior and during a match in progress for international bookmakers Ladbrokes and Centrebet, and sports IT company Infoplum. He is most recognized for his tennis predictions with appearances on SEN sports radio, 3RRR 'Run Like You Stole Something' sports segment and several articles in the Australian Financial Review. He is also a consultant for Tennis Australia in performance analysis, undertaken performance modelling for the AFL Western Bulldogs and Badminton Australia, ongoing collaborations with the International Tennis Federation about improvements to tennis scoring systems and the challenge system, collaborations with Aristocrat on responsible gaming, has been a tutor/lecturer for a 'Chance and Gaming' subject at Swinburne University and worked with the Defence Science Technology (DST).

Funding Sources

No funding was sourced or needed for this study

Competing Interests

No Competing Interests were involved in this study

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May 23rd, 10:15 AM May 23rd, 11:45 AM

Stake Size and Wagering in a Professional Betting Environment – when data affects decision making

Park MGM, Las Vegas, NV

In this work, we discuss the structure of a number of professional wagering organisations, and how they attempt to deal with the “Ender’s Game” effect – when knowledge of the true nature of the ‘war being wagered’ may have affected the process and choice of betting. We analyse the responses from professional wagering and betting organisations, whom operate predominately in Horseracing and sportsbetting, and they identify the importance of separation of decisions around choices to make and the stakes and size of wagers that are linked to the decisions. The proposed model, practically carried out by one company, is an “Enders Game” like environment, with the decision making around betting is semi-detached from the stake/wagering process. The use of a unit basis is shown, and some vignettes revealed that tell startling tales of changes of trades and wagers in light of the stake size and potential cost of losses. This work concludes with operational structures to help avoid the outcomes of psychological effects of changing decisions due to the possibility of losing, and how a feedback mechanism, in an ideal world, helps all stakeholders in the process of betting and trading.