Session Title

Session 2-3-E: Mathematics and Statistics I

Presentation Type

Paper Presentation

Location

Park MGM, Las Vegas, NV

Start Date

24-5-2023 1:30 PM

End Date

24-5-2023 3:00 PM

Disciplines

Data Science | Gaming and Casino Operations Management | Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing | Other Computer Sciences | Other Social and Behavioral Sciences | Theory and Algorithms

Abstract

Abstract

It is difficult for individual players to detect differences in theoretical hold between slot machines without playing an unrealistically large number of games. This difficulty occurs because the fractional loss incurred by a player converges only slowly to the theoretical hold in the presence of volatility designed into slot pay tables. Nevertheless, many operators believe that players can detect changes in hold or differences compared to competition, especially in a locals casino market, and therefore resist increasing holds. Instead of investigating whether individual players can detect differences in hold, we ask whether a population of casino regulars who share information via a network of social connections can detect differences. We present a simulation study, varying factors such as the distribution of holds and volatilities, the density and topology of the social network (i.e. the typical number of social connections, and whether connections are random or form closed groups), and the degree to which an individual’s belief about hold is influenced by their peers. We differentiate between conditions where players are kept guessing about the looseness or tightness of the slots and conditions where the belief of the entire locals casino community crystalizes to a correct conclusion about hold.

Implication statement

Academic studies showing that players cannot detect differences in hold due to volatile pay tables are over-simplified because they do not take into account communication and collective experience in a locals casino community. Network-based simulations can resolve this controversy by determining how effectively a community can learn what individuals cannot.

Keywords

Slot machines, slot holds, simulations, mathematical methods, player dynamics, social networks

Author Bios

Dr. Jason Fiege is CEO/Founder of nQube Data Science Inc. and Associate Professor of astrophysics at the University of Manitoba. He is a scientific computing, data modelling, optimization, and simulation expert with over 20 years of experience. He is the inventor of nQube’s AI-guided evolutionary optimization and data modelling platform, and leads their research in slot floor optimization, AI-based player segmentation, optimization of slot segmentation, and other predictive AI systems.

Funding Sources

All work was funded by nQube Data Science Inc.

Competing Interests

In the last three years nQube has received funding from The National Research Council of Canada Industrial Research Assistance Program (NRC IRAP) for unrelated research.

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May 24th, 1:30 PM May 24th, 3:00 PM

The locals casino as a social network – can an interconnected community of players detect differences in hold?

Park MGM, Las Vegas, NV

Abstract

It is difficult for individual players to detect differences in theoretical hold between slot machines without playing an unrealistically large number of games. This difficulty occurs because the fractional loss incurred by a player converges only slowly to the theoretical hold in the presence of volatility designed into slot pay tables. Nevertheless, many operators believe that players can detect changes in hold or differences compared to competition, especially in a locals casino market, and therefore resist increasing holds. Instead of investigating whether individual players can detect differences in hold, we ask whether a population of casino regulars who share information via a network of social connections can detect differences. We present a simulation study, varying factors such as the distribution of holds and volatilities, the density and topology of the social network (i.e. the typical number of social connections, and whether connections are random or form closed groups), and the degree to which an individual’s belief about hold is influenced by their peers. We differentiate between conditions where players are kept guessing about the looseness or tightness of the slots and conditions where the belief of the entire locals casino community crystalizes to a correct conclusion about hold.

Implication statement

Academic studies showing that players cannot detect differences in hold due to volatile pay tables are over-simplified because they do not take into account communication and collective experience in a locals casino community. Network-based simulations can resolve this controversy by determining how effectively a community can learn what individuals cannot.