Session Title
Session 2-3-E: Mathematics and Statistics I
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation
Location
Park MGM, Las Vegas, NV
Start Date
24-5-2023 1:30 PM
End Date
24-5-2023 3:00 PM
Disciplines
Data Science | Gaming and Casino Operations Management | Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing | Other Computer Sciences | Other Social and Behavioral Sciences | Theory and Algorithms
Abstract
Abstract
It is difficult for individual players to detect differences in theoretical hold between slot machines without playing an unrealistically large number of games. This difficulty occurs because the fractional loss incurred by a player converges only slowly to the theoretical hold in the presence of volatility designed into slot pay tables. Nevertheless, many operators believe that players can detect changes in hold or differences compared to competition, especially in a locals casino market, and therefore resist increasing holds. Instead of investigating whether individual players can detect differences in hold, we ask whether a population of casino regulars who share information via a network of social connections can detect differences. We present a simulation study, varying factors such as the distribution of holds and volatilities, the density and topology of the social network (i.e. the typical number of social connections, and whether connections are random or form closed groups), and the degree to which an individual’s belief about hold is influenced by their peers. We differentiate between conditions where players are kept guessing about the looseness or tightness of the slots and conditions where the belief of the entire locals casino community crystalizes to a correct conclusion about hold.
Implication statement
Academic studies showing that players cannot detect differences in hold due to volatile pay tables are over-simplified because they do not take into account communication and collective experience in a locals casino community. Network-based simulations can resolve this controversy by determining how effectively a community can learn what individuals cannot.
Keywords
Slot machines, slot holds, simulations, mathematical methods, player dynamics, social networks
Funding Sources
All work was funded by nQube Data Science Inc.
Competing Interests
In the last three years nQube has received funding from The National Research Council of Canada Industrial Research Assistance Program (NRC IRAP) for unrelated research.
Included in
Data Science Commons, Gaming and Casino Operations Management Commons, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing Commons, Other Computer Sciences Commons, Other Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons, Theory and Algorithms Commons
The locals casino as a social network – can an interconnected community of players detect differences in hold?
Park MGM, Las Vegas, NV
Abstract
It is difficult for individual players to detect differences in theoretical hold between slot machines without playing an unrealistically large number of games. This difficulty occurs because the fractional loss incurred by a player converges only slowly to the theoretical hold in the presence of volatility designed into slot pay tables. Nevertheless, many operators believe that players can detect changes in hold or differences compared to competition, especially in a locals casino market, and therefore resist increasing holds. Instead of investigating whether individual players can detect differences in hold, we ask whether a population of casino regulars who share information via a network of social connections can detect differences. We present a simulation study, varying factors such as the distribution of holds and volatilities, the density and topology of the social network (i.e. the typical number of social connections, and whether connections are random or form closed groups), and the degree to which an individual’s belief about hold is influenced by their peers. We differentiate between conditions where players are kept guessing about the looseness or tightness of the slots and conditions where the belief of the entire locals casino community crystalizes to a correct conclusion about hold.
Implication statement
Academic studies showing that players cannot detect differences in hold due to volatile pay tables are over-simplified because they do not take into account communication and collective experience in a locals casino community. Network-based simulations can resolve this controversy by determining how effectively a community can learn what individuals cannot.