Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-2021

Publication Title

Climate Dynamics

First page number:

1

Last page number:

17

Abstract

The decline in snowpack across the western United States is one of the most pressing threats posed by climate change to regional economies and livelihoods. Earth system models are important tools for exploring past and future snowpack variability, yet their coarse spatial resolutions distort local topography and bias spatial patterns of accumulation and ablation. Here, we explore pattern-based statistical downscaling for spatially-continuous interannual snowpack estimates. We find that a few leading patterns capture the majority of snowpack variability across the western US in observations, reanalyses, and free-running simulations. Pattern-based downscaling methods yield accurate, high resolution maps that correct mean and variance biases in domain-wide simulated snowpack. Methods that use large-scale patterns as both predictors and predictands perform better than those that do not and all are superior to an interpolation-based “delta change” approach. These findings suggest that pattern-based methods are appropriate for downscaling interannual snowpack variability and that using physically meaningful large-scale patterns is more important than the details of any particular downscaling method.

Keywords

Canonical correlation analysis; Empirical orthogonal functions; Snow water equivalent; Teleconnections; Water resources

Disciplines

Climate | Environmental Sciences

File Format

pdf

File Size

6394 KB

Rights

IN COPYRIGHT. For more information about this rights statement, please visit http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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