Document Type
Article
Publication Date
6-22-2023
Publication Title
Lancet
Volume
402
Issue
10397
First page number:
203
Last page number:
234
Abstract
Background:
Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.
Methods:
Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.
Findings:
In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.
Interpretation:
Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.
Funding:
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Controlled Subject
Diabetes--Research grants; Type 2 diabetes
Disciplines
Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism | Medicine and Health Sciences
File Format
File Size
8000 KB
Language
English
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Publisher Citation
GBD 2021 Diabetes Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet. 2023 Jul 15;402(10397):203-234. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01301-6. Epub 2023 Jun 22. PMID: 37356446; PMCID: PMC10364581.
Repository Citation
Batra, K.,
Numerous Authors, See List Below
(2023).
Global, Regional, and National Burden of Diabetes from 1990 to 2021, With Projections of Prevalence to 2050: a Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Lancet, 402(10397),
203-234.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01301-6
Comments
Full Authors List:
GBD 2021 Diabetes Collaborators: Kanyin Liane Ong, Lauryn K Stafford, Susan A McLaughlin, Edward J Boyko, Stein Emil Vollset, Amanda E Smith, Bronte E Dalton, Joe Duprey, Jessica A Cruz, Hailey Hagins, Paulina A Lindstedt, Amirali Aali, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Melsew Dagne Abate, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Rami Abd-Rabu, Deldar Morad Abdulah, Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah, Vida Abedi, Hassan Abidi, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, Tigist Demssew Adane, Denberu Eshetie Adane, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oyelola A Adegboye, Victor Adekanmbi, Abiola Victor Adepoju, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Rotimi Felix Afolabi, Gina Agarwal, Zahra Babaei Aghdam, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Arriagada, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Danish Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Ali Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Ayman Ahmed, Ali Ahmed, Luai A Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Tareq Mohammed Ali Al-Ahdal, Tariq A Alalwan, Ziyad Al-Aly, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Sharifullah Alemi, Hassam Ali, Tahereh Alinia, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Sami Almustanyir, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Firehiwot Amare, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Sohrab Amiri, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Adnan Ansar, Golnoosh Ansari, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Demelash Areda, Hidayat Arifin, Mesay Arkew, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Anton A Artamonov, Judie Arulappan, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Zahra Aryan, Mulu Tiruneh Asemu, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Elaheh Askari, Daniel Asmelash, Thomas Astell-Burt, Mohammad Athar, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Ahmed Awaisu, Sina Azadnajafabad, Darshan B B, Hassan Babamohamadi, Muhammad Badar, Alaa Badawi, Ashish D Badiye, Nayereh Baghcheghi, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Sulaiman Bah, Saeed Bahadory, Ruhai Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Hamid Reza Baradaran, Martina Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, Noel C Barengo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone, Francesco Barone-Adesi, Amadou Barrow, Hamideh Bashiri, Afisu Basiru, Sanjay Basu, Saurav Basu, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha, Kavita Batra, Mulat Tirfie Bayih, Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Alehegn Bekele Bekele, Melaku Ashagrie Belete, Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi, Luis Belo, Derrick A Bennett, Isabela M Bensenor, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Sonu Bhaskar, Ajay Nagesh Bhat, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Boris Bikbov, Faiq Bilal, Bagas Suryo Bintoro, Saeid Bitaraf, Veera R Bitra, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic, Virginia Bodolica, Archith Boloor, Michael Brauer, Javier Brazo-Sayavera, Hermann Brenner, Zahid A Butt, Daniela Calina, Luciana Aparecida Campos, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Yin Cao, Chao Cao, Josip Car, Márcia Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Joshua Chadwick, Eeshwar K Chandrasekar, Gashaw Sisay Chanie, Jaykaran Charan, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Kirti Chauhan, Huzaifa Ahmad Cheema, Endeshaw Chekol Abebe, Simiao Chen, Nicolas Cherbuin, Fatemeh Chichagi, Saravana Babu Chidambaram, William C S Cho, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Rajiv Chowdhury, Enayet Karim Chowdhury, Dinh-Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Sheng-Chia Chung, Kaleb Coberly, Alyssa Columbus, Daniela Contreras, Ewerton Cousin, Michael H Criqui, Natália Cruz-Martins, Sarah Cuschieri, Bashir Dabo, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno, Rakhi Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Saswati Das, Ana Maria Dascalu, Nihar Ranjan Dash, Mohsen Dashti, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora, Gebiso Roba Debele, Kourosh Delpasand, Fitsum Wolde Demisse, Getu Debalkie Demissie, Xinlei Deng, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Salil V Deo, Emina Dervišević, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Aragaw Tesfaw Desale, Anteneh Mengist Dessie, Fikreab Desta, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, Sourav Dey, Kuldeep Dhama, Meghnath Dhimal, Nancy Diao, Daniel Diaz, Monica Dinu, Mengistie Diress, Shirin Djalalinia, Linh Phuong Doan, Deepa Dongarwar, Francisco Winter Dos Santos Figueiredo, Bruce B Duncan, Siddhartha Dutta, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Hisham Atan Edinur, Michael Ekholuenetale, Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo, Islam Y Elgendy, Muhammed Elhadi, Waseem El-Huneidi, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy, Mohamed A Elmonem, Destaw Endeshaw, Hawi Leul Esayas, Habitu Birhan Eshetu, Farshid Etaee, Ibtihal Fadhil, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Ayesha Fahim, Shahab Falahi, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Hossein Farrokhpour, Farshad Farzadfar, Ali Fatehizadeh, Ghazal Fazli, Xiaoqi Feng, Tomas Y Ferede, Florian Fischer, David Flood, Ali Forouhari, Roham Foroumadi, Masoumeh Foroutan Koudehi, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Santosh Gaihre, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Yaseen Galali, Balasankar Ganesan, M A Garcia-Gordillo, Rupesh K Gautam, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Kahsu Gebrekirstos Gebrekidan, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Lemma Getacher, Fataneh Ghadirian, Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari, Mohammad Ghasemi Nour, Fariba Ghassemi, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Davide Golinelli, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Habtamu Alganeh Guadie, Shi-Yang Guan, Temesgen Worku Gudayu, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Rashid Abdi Guled, Rajeev Gupta, Kartik Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Bishal Gyawali, Rasool Haddadi, Najah R Hadi, Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile, Ramtin Hajibeygi, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Rabih Halwani, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J Hankey, Md Abdul Hannan, Shafiul Haque, Hamid Harandi, Netanja I Harlianto, S M Mahmudul Hasan, Syed Shahzad Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Soheil Hassanipour, Mohammed Bheser Hassen, Johannes Haubold, Khezar Hayat, Golnaz Heidari, Mohammad Heidari, Kamran Hessami, Yuta Hiraike, Ramesh Holla, Sahadat Hossain, Md Shakhaoat Hossain, Mohammad-Salar Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Junjie Huang, Md Nazmul Huda, Salman Hussain, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Nayu Ikeda, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Afrin Iqbal, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rakibul M Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Hiroyasu Iso, Gaetano Isola, Ramaiah Itumalla, Masao Iwagami, Chidozie C D Iwu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu, Assefa N Iyasu, Louis Jacob, Abdollah Jafarzadeh, Haitham Jahrami, Rajesh Jain, Chinwe Jaja, Zahra Jamalpoor, Elham Jamshidi, Balamurugan Janakiraman, Krishnamurthy Jayanna, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Ranil Jayawardena, Rime Jebai, Wonjeong Jeong, Yinzi Jin, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Abel Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Billingsley Kaambwa, Ali Kabir, Robel Hussen Kabthymer, Vidya Kadashetti, Farima Kahe, Rohollah Kalhor, Himal Kandel, Shama D Karanth, Ibraheem M Karaye, Samad Karkhah, Patrick Dmc Katoto, Navjot Kaur, Sina Kazemian, Sewnet Adem Kebede, Yousef Saleh Khader, Himanshu Khajuria, Amirmohammad Khalaji, Moien Ab Khan, Maseer Khan, Ajmal Khan, Saval Khanal, Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh, Amir M Khater, Sorour Khateri, Fatemeh Khorashadizadeh, Jagdish Khubchandani, Biruk Getahun Kibret, Min Seo Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kisa, Mika Kivimäki, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Somayeh Komaki, Farzad Kompani, Hamid Reza Koohestani, Oleksii Korzh, Karel Kostev, Nikhil Kothari, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Mohammed Kuddus, Md Abdul Kuddus, Rakesh Kumar, Harish Kumar, Satyajit Kundu, Maria Dyah Kurniasari, Ambily Kuttikkattu, Carlo La Vecchia, Tea Lallukka, Bagher Larijani, Anders O Larsson, Kamaluddin Latief, Basira Kankia Lawal, Thao Thi Thu Le, Trang Thi Bich Le, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Munjae Lee, Wei-Chen Lee, Paul H Lee, Sang-Woong Lee, Seung Won Lee, Samson Mideksa Legesse, Jacopo Lenzi, Yongze Li, Ming-Chieh Li, Stephen S Lim, Lee-Ling Lim, Xuefeng Liu, Chaojie Liu, 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