Award Date

1-1-1992

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Hotel Administration

Number of Pages

182

Abstract

"Comparison of computer models in forecasting hotel and motel guestroom supply" developed a methodology for estimating guestroom supply. Several traditional forecasting models, including PLAN, were compared. The computer models were applied to Las Vegas, Nevada, using tourism and hospitality statistics from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. The purpose of this study was to determine whether these models generate accurate forecasts; which is the most realistic model; and if these model(s) could be used to reduce guestroom overbuilding; First, statistics, from 1972 to 1990, were collected. Second, the primary data were analyzed to determine if any trends existed over the nineteen year period. Factors with no trend were deleted. Third, the forecasting models were applied to the remaining variables. Fourth, the model results were evaluated to identify those having optimal forecasting capabilities; The 'best estimate' guestroom supply projections for Las Vegas for 1991 to 2000 were generated by PLAN.(UNFORMATTED TABLE OR EQUATION FOLLOWS){dollar}{dollar}\vbox{\halign{\hfil#\hfil&&\quad\hfil#\hfil\cr &{dollar}\underline {\rm Year}{dollar}&{dollar}\underline{\rm `Best\ Estimate'}{dollar}&{dollar}\underline{\rm Year}{dollar}&{dollar}\underline{\rm `Best\ Estimate'}{dollar}\cr &1991&78,965&1996&92,156\cr &1992&81,603&1997&94,794\cr &1993&84,242&1998&97,432\cr &1994&86,880&1999&100,071\cr &1995&89,518&2000&102,752\cr }}{dollar}{dollar}(TABLE/EQUATION ENDS).

Keywords

Comparison; Computer; Forecasting; Guestroom; Hotel; Models; Motel; Nevada; Supply

Controlled Subject

Management; Statistics; Economics

File Format

pdf

File Size

2979.84 KB

Degree Grantor

University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Language

English

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